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Forum:2010 Atlantic Hurricane season/October
October All quiet on the Western Front. 09:07, October 4, 2010 (UTC) :Not for long it won't be. I can see something big coming out of the wave in the Carribean in about 3 or 4 days, but I just can't tell what... Don't let your guard down, everyone, this year could still be nasty as sh!t in October and November. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:07, October 4, 2010 (UTC) 18L.PAULA AoI: Central Caribbean A lot of the models want to spawn something major here, extreme ones shows it somewhat like Wilma, Mitch or Hattie. HurricaneSpin 03:19, October 6, 2010 (UTC) :NHC's showing this at 10% risk, now. --Patteroast 12:45, October 7, 2010 (UTC) ::And it's saying it's moving southwards. That sounds a bit unusual. 21:13, October 7, 2010 (UTC) 98L.INVEST Invest'd. The location's making me think of Martha from 1969... the models turn it back north, though. --Patteroast 03:07, October 9, 2010 (UTC) :I don't like these small invests; these are the ones that are born in favorable conditions and explode into monster storms. There isn't an ounce of shear over this thing and it's in bathtub-warm water. The conditions are coming together for rapid intensification, and I shudder to think how the Carribean will look like 3 days from now... and further down the road, the southern U.S. Stay tuned. This one could be very bad... Ryan1000 14:59, October 9, 2010 (UTC) ::The latest GFDL run is rather scary... it ends with a category three hurricane in the Yucatan Channel. As for right now, NHC's got it at 30% risk. --Patteroast 19:41, October 9, 2010 (UTC) :::Pat, i'm expecting a lot worse than some run-of-the mill category 3 storm. Given the incredibly favorable conditions in the Carribean, I wouldn't be surprised if I see a category 4 or even 5 storm out of this thing by the time it gets to the Yucatan. Who knows what it'll do from there... Keep your eyes out. This storm very well might be the monster storm of 2010 that I was fearing earlier... Ryan1000 20:31, October 9, 2010 (UTC) :::Holy crap, a few hours ago it was at 30%. Now I checked and it's at 60%! However, it's moving northwest-ish, so hopefully it'll run out of water before it can explode. Hopefully... ::Um, in the northwest direction it's going, it will just miss the northern coast of Honduras and possibly explode north of there, or just before it gets there. It isn't in the same position as Ida or Beta, so it will have more time to bomb out. Keep a close eye on this one; it doesn't look so pretty... Ryan1000 12:36, October 10, 2010 (UTC) :::Has any agency(NRL, RBT, or NHC) called this thing a depression yet? From how it looks on the sattelites i'd be surprised if it isn't one very soon... Ryan1000 19:37, October 10, 2010 (UTC) ::::Actually, NHC's development risk went down slightly from 60% to 50%. I have to say, I'd be surprised if this doesn't become a depression sooner rather than later, though. --Patteroast 07:10, October 11, 2010 (UTC) :::::Special TWO issued... Hurricane Hunters are en route to see if we've got a depression yet. NHC has the development risk at 80%. --Patteroast 17:46, October 11, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Apparently they found something interesting... NHC now says it's "near 100%" and "...A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON..." Here comes Paula! --Patteroast 18:53, October 11, 2010 (UTC) 18L.EIGHTEEN NRL's calling it Eighteen, and it sounds like NHC will start advisories soon. --Patteroast 18:56, October 11, 2010 (UTC) :I think the NRL is using the Eighteen designation as a formality for now; several reports from recon and the best track are calling it Paula: the first storm ever in the Atlantic to get that name. When it's named, 2010 will tie for the fifth most active season with 1936, 2003, and 2008. Jake52 19:28, October 11, 2010 (UTC) I don't really know what 2010 will have for the rest of the season, but, to tell the truth, Mexico is getting hammered this season. We've had Alex and Karl thus far. Is Paula gonna be the third big hit? Geez... If Paula hits the Gulf coast of Mexico as a hurricane, this will be the first time 3 hurricanes have hit Mexico's Gulf coast in a single season. Man, they better start getting ready for this one. It could be as bad as Karl... or worse if it tracks further north into Tampico, having more time to strengthen... Ryan1000 19:48, October 11, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Paula Straight to tropical storm status, and 60mph winds! Wasn't expecting that. Nobody really has a clue where this one is going to go either, do they? 20:42, October 11, 2010 (UTC) :Uh oh. This is not good... It may not hit Mexico directly in the near future; the current forecast brings it off of the Yucatan Peninsula as a stalling category one, but, as I mentioned earlier, given the extremely favorable conditions in the Caribbean, it could easily become a category 4 or 5 storm by the time it comes toward there, and could possibly pull a Wilma. The ridge over the southeast will probrably prevent a U.S. landfall, but man, Mexico just can't catch a break this year... It's only October 11 and this is exactly what 2008 ended at:16-8-5, and 4 category 4's. Wow. This year just won't stop comin', and Paula could be the worst storm thus far in 2010... Stay tuned, everyone. Ryan1000 21:44, October 11, 2010 (UTC) ::Winds up to 70 mph. The highest that the forecast and models are calling for right now is a peak at category two. Still, Paula's future's pretty wide open. Either way, she should be some sort of hurricane soon. --Patteroast 04:30, October 12, 2010 (UTC) :: :: Hurricane Paula Yup, according to the 9am advisory, but only barely. I really doubt this thing will get above a category 3 but given that nobody seems to know where it's going, I could regret having said that. 09:31, October 12, 2010 (UTC) :Well, Paula may actually die without making a landfall, to tell the truth. The current forecast pulls it right offshore of Cozumel and Cancun as a hurricane, but after that, knocks it down to a TS by the time it passes south of western Cuba. Who knows where she"ll go from there... This thing needs to be watched, but it's gonna be hard to say what she"ll do in the next week. At least it isn't as bad as Mitch was-- there was uncertainty in Mitch's forecast, but uncertainty with a category 5 may turn out to be disasterous. And it was. Uncertainty with a storm like Paula may be better than what happened in 1998, but intensity forecasting with this storm is completly uncertain... Stay tuned. Ryan1000 11:07, October 12, 2010 (UTC) ::Hey! Paula's already a category two. Major hurricane status might not be out of the question after all! --Patteroast 18:42, October 12, 2010 (UTC) :::It's starting to get real interesting for Cozumel. I think a near-major hurricane is more than they bargained for. Here's to hoping this doesn't turn ugly. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 20:07, October 12, 2010 (UTC) ::(edit conflict) Damn it, Eric! You beat me to it. Well, this thing could still explode before it gets there and cause severe damage there, and I mean a category 4 explosion isn't out of the question... This storm is very small, like the size of Ida or Beta, smaller than Wilma, even. Keep an eye on this thing, it's not looking so pretty... Ryan1000 20:13, October 12, 2010 (UTC) :And Eric, Paula's track is becoming more and more uncertain... It appears the Yucatan might get off lucky in this storm, but this storm's track is very uncertain. If it slows down, it could take a sharp eastward turn and end up in Central Cuba. If it parallels southern Cuba, then it will weaken due to interaction with land and probrably be no worse than a Katrina (1981). If it picks up some steam, it could end up going northeast and hitting Florida as a hurricane, but probrably not a strong one. All in all, this thing will make for a very interesting next 48 hours... Ryan1000 01:11, October 13, 2010 (UTC) ::Storms are becoming weirder and weirder, ''fortunately. In fact, Bonnie was thought to be a major gulf spill threat, Earl a east coast major, Gaston a major hurricane in the Caribbean, Igor a Nicole hitting Florida hard, and here comes Paula. In Cancun, only trace amount were received at the airport and Paula already is turning east, with much of the gale force wind well offshore. What kind of trend is this? HurricaneSpin Talk to me 04:38, October 13, 2010 (UTC) :::Looks like Paula's not getting above category two. NHC seems to feel much more confident in their forecasted path into and slowly across Cuba. Impacts on Cancun and Cozumel were essentially nil. --Patteroast 17:07, October 13, 2010 (UTC) ::Um, a U.S. landfall from Paula cannot be ruled out at this point. The NHC has issued tropical storm watches for south Florida due to the uncertainty that Paula could turn northeast instead of southeast. Even so, if Paula does hit south Florida, it probrably wouldn't be any stronger than the average category one or tropical storm there, and impacts probrably won't be severe all in all. In general, I finally say that Paula had scared us, but not killed us, or anyone in the Caribbean either. And about what you mentioned, HurricaneSpin, there is no particular trend here, but all I can say is we have had an extremely good run of luck. Almost every storm in 2010 could have been much worse than they had been. Alex could have hit south Texas had the ridge not strengthened at the last moment, Bonnie could have screwed up the guf coast had that ULL not been there, Colin died due to shear in the ATL and had that shear not been there, who knows what it could have done, Earl barely missed the east coast, Gaston somehow didn't come back to us when it was forecast to, Igor could have been much worse for Bermuda had it not weakened as fast as it did, and Karl could have been a 5 in Tampico rather than a 3 in Veracruz had the ridge not strengthened like it did with Alex. How lucky can we get from a season? I guess mother nature follows her own rules... Ryan1000 20:58, October 13, 2010 (UTC) :::Oh, I wasn't saying that Paula's track was totally certain, just that it was no longer at the stage of 'it could be absolutely anywhere'. Although it's starting to look like all tropical storm Paula (was downgraded) has left is to die over the mountains of Cuba. --Patteroast 17:18, October 14, 2010 (UTC) ::::For the record, GFS and NOGAPS both develop something huge in the western Caribbean towards the end of the forecast period. I'm still waiting on the 12Z run of the ECMWF to see if it follows suit. That's somewhat disconcerting. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:42, October 14, 2010 (UTC) :::I personally won't look forward to seeing a monster out of that storm... The outflow from Paula and the cold front over the southeast will both hinder its intensification rate. At best I would expect category 3 out of this new system(Richard), but NOT category 4 or 5. It's environment isn't favorable enough for ''that kind of explosion, but major hurricane strength isn't out of the question at all... We should stay tuned on that storm. Ryan1000 20:05, October 14, 2010 (UTC) RICHARD BECOMES A HURRICANE Storm's Eye 14:50, October 24, 2010 (UTC) :And it's expected to hit 100 mph before its landfall later today. Belize needs to watch this one carefully... It isn't out of the question at all that we could see a 115 or 120 mph storm out of Richard... He could be major hurricane number 6 in 2010. This could be Belize's worst hit since at least 2001's Hurricane Iris. After it hits Belize and moves into the Gulf, conditions will become increasingly hostile and it will likely fall apart. However, we should stay tuned on what it could do to Belize. Ryan1000 17:09, October 24, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Richard Hit with 90 mph winds yesterday. Richard fortunately hit only as a strong category one hurricane, but as of now, no deaths have been reported. I'm not so sure as to what the damages will be like, but i'm not expecting them to be that bad... I mean, how lucky can we get? Just how lucky can we get? Richard could have been a category 4 or 5 hurricane bearing down on Central America yesterday but all we got was a small and weak storm in Belize. I'm not currently expecting any more storms in the rest of October and possibly one in November. This season is just about wraped up. The U.S. is probrably the luckiest bastard this year. Who knows what we could have been hit with without this luck streak we had... I don't know what mother nature's rules are for this year's season, but I love 'em, thank god for shear, dry air, and high pressure. Ryan1000 20:38, October 25, 2010 (UTC) AoI: WSW of Cape Verde Hello. Wave up on NHC way out by Cape Verde. They note that it's not climatologically likely, but it is at 10% risk. --Patteroast 14:35, October 17, 2010 (UTC) :Gone. --Patteroast 23:16, October 19, 2010 (UTC) 90L.INVEST AoI: South of Cape Verde 10% on NHC. Cape Verde? What. --Patteroast 11:54, October 21, 2010 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Up on ATCF. Very rare for tropical cyclones to form in the Eastern Atlantic (while few have; like Vince, Epsilon, etc) at this time of year. -- 12:30, October 21, 2010 (UTC) :Looks surprisingly well-defined, and may indeed be a depression already. Models seem to want to take it due north. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:05, October 21, 2010 (UTC) ::After being at 30% risk for a few days, it went down to 10% and is still there. Looks like it missed its chance. --Patteroast 19:49, October 24, 2010 (UTC) :::Hm. Still there! And back up to 20%. Apparently there'll be a window for the next day to become a subtropical storm, before conditions worsen again. --Patteroast 05:38, October 26, 2010 (UTC) ::::And back up to 30%, medium risk, again. --Patteroast 12:03, October 26, 2010 (UTC) :::::It dropped back to 10%, and then came back to 30% for a THIRD time! I really want this to become a short-lived Shary just because of its tenacity. :P --Patteroast 20:20, October 27, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Up to 50%! "ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM." --Patteroast 03:45, October 28, 2010 (UTC) :::::::According to Jeff Masters' account of what happened at NHC last night, they wanted to name this Shary, but decided to be cautious and see if it held together. --Patteroast 15:31, October 28, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::I know I'm doing a lot of talking to myself here, but it looks like another window of opportunity for this storm to develop is starting to close... risk is back down to 30%. --Patteroast 18:10, October 28, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::I think it's finally fair to say that 90L's dying. Down to 10% risk. --Patteroast 15:58, October 29, 2010 (UTC) AoI: Central Atlantic This one is to the west-northwest of 90L, and already looks like a subtropical depression. An area of intense convection is being pulled to the northwest by a trough linked to another extratropical low that may well interact with 90L, while a low-level circulation is pulling the system west. This isn't even on the TWO. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:05, October 21, 2010 (UTC) :On the TWO now at 10% risk. --Patteroast 04:13, October 22, 2010 (UTC) ::Isn't this the same as the previous "AoI: WSW of Cape Verde"? HurricaneSpin Talk to me 18:54, October 23, 2010 (UTC) :::I think this one was behind that one. Either way, it's gone. --Patteroast 19:51, October 24, 2010 (UTC) 21L.TOMAS Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season/Tomas 20L.SHARY 92L.INVEST And hello again! A wave to the NE of the Leeward Islands. Some of the models seemed to be predicting this a couple days ago. 10% on NHC. --Patteroast 20:20, October 27, 2010 (UTC) :Risk has jumped up to 30%. --Patteroast 03:47, October 28, 2010 (UTC) ::And now leaped to 60%! "ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO." --Patteroast 13:18, October 28, 2010 (UTC) :Uh, WAKE UP! It may be October 28, but I don't want everyone abandoning 2010 so soon. This season is NOT over yet. Everyone must keep an eye on these late-season Carribean pop-ups because they tend to explode once the Caribbean settles down at this time of year. I think I can see Shary coming to us in a few days, but I don't want everyone turning their lights off when October ends because many huricanes explode in the favorable conditions in the carribean at this time of year. There may be a sh!tload of shear dominating the Carribean now, but I'm not expecting that to last for a very long period of time(a.k.a. 4 weeks straight). Most recently, 2 years ago, when Hurricane Paloma blasted through Cuba as a strong hurricane in November, once a category 4 and the second strongest November storm on record, it formed far out of the main part of a season. It definitely isn't impossible we could see a storm like Paloma this year, too. Ida last year was close to doing that same thing that Paloma did, although fortunately it didn't. I don't know if everyone else is leaving 2010 right now, but I, for one, won't let my guard down until it is oficially 12:00 UTC January 1, 2011. This thing must be watched carefully. This will be one of only 3 "S" names should it become Shary, and will make 18 storms in 2010 AHS, and the 4th in October thus far. Man, this year won't stop coming. Wow. Ryan1000 22:51, October 28, 2010 (UTC) ::To everyone who doubted the season predictions back in July and early August...who said that this season wasn't going to reach 18 named storms, the model runs and recent best track have just one thing to say: ::Say hello to Tropical Storm Shary. Jake52 02:18, October 29, 2010 (UTC) :::Bumped up to 70% risk. --Patteroast 02:33, October 29, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Shary Not entirely sure if it's fully tropical, but it looks like sources are pointing towards it being officially named Shary at the next advisory. NRL is calling it 20L.TWENTY and winds are at ~40 mph, so... --Patteroast 02:39, October 29, 2010 (UTC) :Official now. PARTY! PARTY! PARTY! Gay's prediction is true! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 02:57, October 29, 2010 (UTC) ::Tropical storm warning for Bermuda. Shary should fall apart shortly after passing there. --Patteroast 15:56, October 29, 2010 (UTC) :I don't know what the F**K this thing will do, but Shary is the saddest excuse for sh!t I have ever seen. It is an '''epic' fail and won't ever cause signifigant damage on land. It's not worth my time. Tomas, on the other hand, most certainly is. Ryan1000 21:33, October 29, 2010 (UTC) ::Hey, winds got up to near hurricane force. That's hardly an epic fail in my book. It didn't look all that impressive on satellite, but the tropics aren't a beauty contest. This season is just absolutely incredible. We're down to the "T" storm now. 19 storms! NINETEEN!! Only four other seasons in the past 160 years (!!) has had this many storms. 1887, 1933, 1995 and 2005. That's unbelievable, and we've still got a whole 'nother month of the season left. NHC's tone in their advisories and discussions is becoming reminiscent of 2005; a lot of verbal head shaking, disbelief and, eventually, exasperation. When Shary formed, their headline was "Yet another tropical storm forms". The way this season has gone, it wouldn't surprise me if we run the table. We have four weeks to get two more storms: Virginie and Walter. How's that preseason prediction looking now?! Pretty darn good, I'd say! Remember what we were all saying during that lull in July? The forecast is a bust. What the hell are they smoking? We're gonna struggle to make it to twelve storms. Even I was beginning to doubt the forecast, calling it over-aggressive. Well, the prognosticators are having the last laugh now. What a season. Amazing. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 06:12, October 30, 2010 (UTC) Hurricane Shary What the hell? If you asked me a couple hours ago which storm would become a hurricane, I would NOT have guessed Shary. --Patteroast 08:40, October 30, 2010 (UTC) :A classic example of a hurricane that may not have been detected without satellite technology. On that note, given the number of named storms this season that were barely strong enough to be classified as such, I will likely be sending NHC a list of possibly a dozen borderline storms to consider. Shary is now eroding away in the trough. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:20, October 30, 2010 (UTC) ::Downgraded to a tropical storm as it goes extratropical. Last advisory. --Patteroast 22:02, October 30, 2010 (UTC)